SignalDesk Markets Console | Polymarket & Kalshi

Event	Outcome	Buy On	Sell On	Spread	Buy	Sell	Profit %	Conf.	Actions
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Paper Trades

-- Total

-- Open

$1,000.00 Balance

-- Expected P&L

-- Realized P&L

-- Avg Spread

#	Event	Outcome	Buy On	Sell On	Entry Spread	Live Spread	Notional	Shares	Expected P&L	Live P&L	Realized P&L	Status	Opened	Actions
No paper trades yet. Click "Paper Trade" on any opportunity.

Spread Distribution

Opportunities by Type

Platform Comparison

Opportunity Count Over Time

Profit vs Confidence Scatter

Market Coverage Heatmap

BUY

HOLD

Total Exposure

Avg Edge

Action	Event	Outcome	Buy On	Sell On	Buy Price	Sell Price	Spread	Profit %	Confidence	Position Size
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Position Sizing Allocation

Platform	Market	YES	NO	Volume	Category	Actions
Loading markets...

Select Market

Orderbook

Select a market to view its orderbook

Data & Refresh

Refresh Interval (seconds)

60s

Auto-refresh

Arbitrage Detection

Min Spread Threshold

0.020

Match Confidence Threshold

0.35

Signal Confidence Threshold

0.40

Risk Management

Max Exposure Per Market

10%

Max Total Exposure

50%

Appearance

Theme

Table Density

Sound Alerts

Actions

Bot Status

Active Markets

Signals

Net Edge

Allocated ($)

Polls

WS: polling --

Balance ($)

Total P&L

Realized P&L

Unrealized P&L

Win Rate

W:L Ratio

Profit Factor

Max Drawdown

Trades (W/L)

Raw Edge (Abs)

Net Edge (Abs)

Net/Raw %

Avg Hurdle

Tracked Markets

Market	Duration	Time Left	CLOB Price	LMSR Price	Edge (raw/net)	Signal	Kelly %	Bet ($)	Action
Connecting to LMSR bot...

Balance & Cumulative P&L

Raw vs Net Edge (Abs) + Avg Hurdle

Trade History (paper)

#	Market	Dir	Entry	Exit	Bet ($)	P&L ($)	Return %	Status	Opened
No trades yet.

* Open-trade P&L is live mark-to-market (unrealised).

LMSR Settings

Liquidity b

100

Damping

0.40

Min Edge

0.030

Fractional Kelly

0.25

Max Kelly %

25%

Execution Mode

Live Armed

Strict Live Validation

Live Capital + Dynamic Rates

Total Live Capital ($)

LMSR Allocation (%)

Capital: -- Rates: -- Rate Sync: --

Bankroll ($)

Horizon (min)

Poll Interval (s)

Min Entry 5m (s)

Min Entry 15m (s)

Max Open Trades

Max Total Allocation %

Max Per-Asset Allocation %

Momentum Filter Enabled

Momentum Lookback (pts)

Momentum EWMA Alpha

Momentum Z Threshold

Momentum Persistence

Momentum Vol Sensitivity

Momentum Edge Override Mult

Fee (bps, RT)

Slippage Buffer

Carry/Funding (bps/day)

Vol Buffer Mult

Edge Epsilon

Process: not managed

How it works

The LMSR engine tracks a damped fair-value of each 5m/15m Polymarket market. At each poll it infers the net order-flow implied by the CLOB price move and applies only Damping × that volume to the LMSR model. This creates a smoothed baseline that lags behind sudden price spikes.

When |CLOB − LMSR| ≥ Min Edge a signal is raised. BUY_YES when the market dipped below fair value; SELL_YES (buy NO) when it spiked above. Kelly criterion sizes the bet, scaled by √(t_remaining/t_total) to reduce exposure near resolution.

Bot Status

Active Opps

Signals

Net Edge

Locked Opps

Convergence Opps

Polls

Balance ($)

Total P&L

Realized

Unrealized

Win Rate

Trades

Locked Open

Conv Open

Locked Trades

Conv Trades

Locked P&L

Conv P&L

Arbitrage Opportunities (Model)

Event	Outcome	Class	Legs	Spread	Model	Edge	Hurdle	Signal	Kelly %	Bet ($)	Action
Connecting to arb LMSR bot...

Trade History (paper)

#	Event	Outcome	Class	Entry Spread	Current	Bet ($)	P&L ($)	Return %	Status	Opened
No trades yet.

Cumulative P&L by Class

Arb LMSR Settings

Source URL

Smoothing Alpha

Min Edge

Min Spread

Min Confidence

Min Profit %

Bankroll ($)

Fractional Kelly

Max Kelly %

Execution Mode

Live Armed

Strict Live Validation

Live Capital + Dynamic Rates

Total Live Capital ($)

LMSR Allocation (%)

Capital: -- Rates: -- Rate Sync: --

Fee (bps, RT)

Polymarket Fee (bps)

Kalshi Fee (bps)

Slippage Buffer

Carry Locked (bps/day)

Carry Conv (bps/day)

Hold Locked (min)

Hold Conv (min)

Locked Leg Risk

Convergence Leg Risk

Locked Open Threshold

Convergence Open Threshold

Close Threshold

Locked Size Cap %

Stale Timeout (s)

Poll Interval (s)

Process:not managed

Bot Health

Ready

Opportunities

Process

-- Pools Tracked

-- Current Block

-- Cycles Checked

-- Best Profit (hbip)

-- Broadcasted

Recent Opportunities last 200 entries

#	Time	Token	Profit (hbip)	Profit %	Amount In	Amount Out	Hops	Block	Broadcast	Tx Hash
Waiting for bot data...

Bot Control

APP_MIN_PROFIT_HBIP

APP_HEALTH_PORT

APP_BROADCAST

Setup

The Ekubo bot runs as a Rust binary that detects cyclic DEX arbitrage opportunities on Starknet's Ekubo AMM.

Required environment variables (set in ekubo-arbitrage/.env):

APP_RPC_URL — Starknet JSON-RPC endpoint
APP_RPC_WS_URL — WebSocket RPC URL
APP_ACCOUNT_ADDRESS — wallet address (hex)
APP_ACCOUNT_PRIVATE_KEY — private key (hex)
APP_FROM_BLOCK — starting block (e.g. 6880900)

To run externally:

cd ekubo-arbitrage
cp .env.example .env
# fill in .env
cargo run --release --bin ekubo-arb

Profit is measured in hbip (hundredth basis points).
1 hbip = 0.0001% = 0.000001 of notional.

Opportunity Details